This Window of Opportunity

By Hassan Abbas, "Pakistan needs more democracy to transcend Musharraf" - The Daily Star - Beirut, Lebanon
Friday, July 4, 2008

Following its recent free elections, Pakistan is rebounding politically.

But the euphoria that came with the end of the Musharraf era is wearing off, as the new government faces stark choices.

Unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, democracy is not new to the 60-year-old state, but ethnic cleavages, weak institutions, and religious extremism in the North are perennially destabilizing.

And, while the new government settles in and establishes its priorities, the West, especially the United States, must reassess the impact of its past dealings with Pakistan.

Pakistan's new prime minister, Yusuf Gilani, is a seasoned politician and, more importantly, has Sufi family roots, which is a good omen because of the Sufi tradition of tolerance.

Gilani unequivocally declared in his inaugural address that fighting terrorism was a top priority, and his first decision was to release from house arrest judges deposed by PresidentPervez Musharraf.

The respite from the horrendous spate of suicide bombings since the new government assumed power is similarly heartening. But the honeymoon period is coming to an end.

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The revival of democratic politics in Pakistan will undoubtedly effect Pakistan-US relations. Pakistan's military links with the United States appear to remain on a sound footing, so the strategic alliance with Washington is likely to continue, perhaps with some nuanced differences over how to fight the "war on terror".

But Pakistani politicians are bound to be influenced by domestic public opinion, which is generally critical of American policies.

Nevertheless, long-term US interests in the region will be better served if Pakistan's democratic forces successfully establish themselves. A proposal in the US Senate to increase development and education aid to Pakistan could help in winning hearts and minds.

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Pakistan's government appears to be preparing to talk to some of the extremists in the tribal areas, introduce political reforms, and redouble development efforts. But reference to "talks" makes the West uncomfortable.

American officials have likened this strategy to negotiating with terrorists, and point to a previous round of negotiations that did nothing to stop violence in the tribal areas.

But the new leadership wants to distinguish between Al-Qaeda terrorists and religious conservatives and disillusioned Pashtun youth within Pakistan. After all, the victory of the secular Awami National Party in Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province is a strong indication that people there have rejected religious political forces and violence.

This window of opportunity can be expanded through dialogue and reconciliation with those who are ready to disavow extremism and militancy. The new Pakistani government needs to explain this to the West in order to keep its support.

The US, meanwhile, should end direct military strikes in the area, even if these are conducted with the knowledge and cooperation of Pakistan's military.

Force has never worked with the Pashtun tribes, and there is no evidence that this has changed. There are real signs that the new government is considered a credible partner in the tribal areas. It needs to be given time to find a way out of the endless cycle of violence.

Hassan Abbas, a fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University, is author of " Pakistan's Drift into Extremism: Allah, the Army, and America's War on Terror".